I previously reviewed the A/R turnover ratio, as well as the related average collection period. Let’s digress just a little…
Most of my discussion regarding financial ratio analysis has been oriented towards spotting trends or issues. Typically, financial ratio analysis is performed after-the-fact, or on historical financial performance. Therefore it is easy to assume that financial ratio analysis is merely diagnostic in nature…it is used to look for a problem to fix or to keep a problem from occurring.
Let me make just two comments:
- Financial ratio analysis can, and should be applied to financial forecasting. Doing so provides a ‘sanity check’ as to the reasonableness of the forecast. For example, if your company has had a historical gross profit margin of 35 percent and your forecast shows a 45 percent gross profit margin, you better have a damn good explanation for the dramatic change…otherwise both you and your banker will be disappointed.
- Don’t let the tail wag the dog. What I mean is that financial ratios are a tool to help you manage and direct the business, not shackles that keep you from doing what you need to do to accomplish your business and personal goals.
Regarding the second point, the average collection period is a great example. My prior discussion identified the reasons, or effects, of changing average collection periods. However, one way to grow revenues (and hopefully profits) is to loosen credit standards – providing more generous payment terms to your customers will (1) allow existing customers to purchase more from you, and allow new customers with poorer credit history to purchase from you. That’s not necessarily bad…as long as you understand the risks involved.
This type of risk (credit risk) is what bankers deal with every day, usually very effectively, but sometimes not too well, as the current subprime mortgage mess illustrates.
There is a cost to you to purposefully allow the average collection period to grow. You diminish your cash by allowing customers to pay later and you risk greater levels of non-payment by having customer with poorer paying records. You may even have to borrow to finance your receivables to do so. You need to recognize this fact and you measure and track it.
So, if you put this all together, you can be proactive in your receivables management and possibly grow your business through use of credit terms. However, you should do so only if you can estimate the cost of doing so and you carefully and constantly measure and track your strategy, in part, through the use of both historical and prospective financial ratio analysis.